DEL MAR – Jimmy The Hat had the race right, but the bet wrong. He was so confident in the outcome of yesterday's fourth race that he drew a red circle in his Daily Racing Form around the No. 7.
But when he went to the Large Transaction Window at Del Mar, The Hat waffled. He would bet World War for the first leg of his Pick Six parlay, but he hedged that bet with so many other horses that it multiplied the cost of his wager.
When you invest $4,032 in a Pick Six ticket, you can't really afford to be saddled with horses you don't really need. So when World War won, Jimmy The Hat behaved as if he had lost, stomping and swearing and lamenting his failure to follow his own conviction in pursuit of the biggest Pick Six prize in Del Mar history: $5,177,766.
SCOTT LINNETT / Union-Tribune
Jockey David Flores is exuberant as he heads for the winner's circle aboard Street Boss, winner of the Bing Crosby Handicap at Del Mar. The horse went from last to first in a field of nine.
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“I like this horse very much,” said The Hat, whose legal surname is Allard. “If this had just been a day without $5 million in the pool, I would have singled (World War), singled Tap It Light (in the fifth race), and I would have been very strong the rest of the way.”
But when Tap It Light lost, The Hat, counterintuitively, remained calm. The seasoned gambler grows accustomed to disappointment, but he tends to have a hard time with indecision.
“We're playing for big jackpots,” Larry Zap said. “We know the difficulty factor. It's like you're Greg Louganis and you don't want the safe dive. You want to do the complex one and if you miss, you miss.”
Because yesterday's jackpot was juiced by a carryover of more than $1.5 million, 17,758 spectators were drawn to where the turf meets the surf by the lure of a life-changing payoff. Because the card was dominated by favorites, however, the jackpot was distributed among 59 winning tickets, each worth $60,499.40.
Larry Zap's Pick Six ticket accounted for $2,160 of a total handle exceeding $20 million, and it produced five winners before failing him in the finale.
Worse, he saw it coming before the horses hit the track for the ninth race.
“I went into the paddock and said, 'We're done,' ” Zap said. “I saw the three horse (She Floats) couldn't lose. I'm a judge of physicality of horses and he just looked like a superior horse. I called my one client and said, 'You know what? We're in trouble.' ”
Zap was as matter-of-fact about his near-miss as if he had just lost a quarter in a vending machine. Watching professional gamblers at work, it's sometimes difficult to detect if they own a pulse.
Fifty high-dollar horseplayers gathered in the track's Native Diver suite this weekend for a handicapping contest that required a $6,000 buy-in, and the most striking quality of the competition was its quiet. Except when exhorting their horses down the stretch, the serious players were both serious and solemn.
To them, gambling is a percentage game and profit practically a certainty.
“You can't think you're going to win,” said Mike Rosenthal of Las Vegas. “You have to know you're going to win. In the long run, you've got to know you're going to win.”
And how does that happen?
Rosenthal invoked a colorful phrase for intestinal fortitude.
The other indispensable attribute would be brains.
“For me, it's the challenge of seeing something that nobody else sees,” said Ron Geary, who owns the Ellis Park track in Kentucky. “You have the Powerball and lottery, but that's just luck. There is skill involved in thoroughbred horse racing.”
Bryan Carney was able to buy the 100-1 Club near Santa Anita because of his skill at horseplaying. He has won two Breeders' Cup Pick Sixes, and plowed some of the proceeds into the bar business. But though Carney competed in the handicapping challenge at Del Mar, he declined to plunge at the Pick Six.
Carney dislikes the uncertainty of maiden races and prefers to do his exotic wagering on individual races rather than predict what might happen four or five races in advance. He thinks of himself as a vertical bettor and the Pick Six as a horizontal proposition.
“The Pick Six can change your life, and that's why people play,” he said. “The odds are much better than playing the lottery. But if you can't find two horses you really like, you shouldn't play the Pick Six.”
Professionals typically look for a couple of dominant horses to “single,” in order to keep their ticket affordable and make broader bets in tougher races. Jimmy The Hat's ticket included 25 horses across the six races; Larry Zap's 20.
And that's just a starting position. The secondary market in exotic wagering can be brisk when the jackpot reaches seven digits.
“A million different scenarios can take place,” Allard said. “A kid will come up to me later today with a $16 ticket and he'll have three in a row. 'Jimmy, how much will you give for half the ticket?' I'll give you $500 for half the ticket.
“On a day like today, with $5 million in there, you don't need to think about it. The value is so extraordinary, you just go.”
Tim Sullivan: (619) 293-1033; tim.sullivan@uniontrib.com
